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Saturday, December 26, 2015

Money Race 2: Multiplayer Cheat-sheet

Here is my Money Race 2 Cheat-sheet to win multiplayer game:
  • Pay off Credit Card (120% APR), Bank Loan (60+%), Car Credit (36+%) ASAP! 
  • Buy rare 36+% ROI Business/Property now and 12+% ROI if you have cash 
  • Ignore <12% ROI Busines/Property, mortgage and stock dividend for later
  • Sell property that lost value.
Once you win your first single player race, you might want to try the multiplayer competition. There are several potential advantages when you do this:
  1. Low difficulty level gives you profession with less monthly income and less debt. Less debt makes it easier to win. For example when you win a Lottery, the price is fixed to 150000 regardless of how little your debt is. This is unlikely, by if you got fired, you have less to lose and need only small bank loan to survive into the next payday. 
  2. If you are out of spin, other player might gives you some FREE spins to keep you playing. So, you could basically play this game for FREE if you want to. 

Timing is very important in multiplayer game. Each player has three hours to complete five spins. And your total income and expenses is calculated only on Pay Day that happens after every fourth spin. So, try to pay off Credit Card, Bank Loan and Car Credit before the fourth spin.

Bankruptcy only happens on Pay Day. So each time, you need to know how many spins away you are from the pay day.  You can get this information by scrolling down the Stats page from the Advanced menu. In this case, you are on you 20th Turn. So, you have four spins into the next Pay Day.

You can think of one spin as one week. So, one Pay Day happens every four weeks or a month. My strategy is to keep buying as much as 12+% ROI property/business offers during my first three weeks. Then I pause, think and prepare for the important Pay Day:
  1. My income is positive (I am not fired from my job and has not many expensive debt). If this is the case, I will try pay of Credit Card, Bank Loan and Car Credit if any. Otherwise I will try to buy 12+% ROI properties from the market if any.
  2. If my income is negative, then I will try to sell some or all of my properties on the market. I also sell property if it lost its value. Worst case, I will try to get just enough loan from my bank to survive the next Pay day.

Note, I don't use the stock market. This is because it takes too much time to calculate ROI, buying and selling stock. The ROI of stock dividends is under 12% or worst most of the time, except in Level 1. There, the stock ROI can be as high as 21%. They are useful close to the end of a race, when you have so much money but no property to buy. 

Money Race 2: Which Assets to Buy

This article is all you need to win your first single player race. I follow this guide and win the game in 7 spins. This is partially thanks to a lottery win when I spin into an orange surprise area. 

Look into the following "Income Statement" page. Only income from business/property and stock dividends that counts as passive income. You win the game when you gather assets to generate enough total passive income bigger than total of your expenses. 
You get an offer to buy a business or a rental property when you spin into a purple area. You can trade rental property and stock in Advanced menu, which will be explained in later posts.
You need to scroll down the offer to see the "Total to Pay", 2,614 in this case. Do not buy it unless if the "Total to pay" is lower than your current cash, 6,720 in this case. This is basically the down payment to buy the business/property.

To win the game, you will need to buy only cashflow positive business/property, the value is 60 per month in this case. The higher the ROI (Return of Investment), the faster you win, 27% per year in this case, or above 2% per month. 

If you are curious, the ROI is calculated from the monthly cashflow divided by Total to Pay, then multiplied by 12 months. So, 27% = 60/2614*12. The cashflow was calculated from monthly Income minus monthly Bank Payment. So, 60 = 70-10. 

The monthly Bank Payment covers only interest, 10 per month in this case, on the credit, 3396 in this case. The interest rate of the mortgage is low, 0,29% per month or 10/3396 in this case. 

You may touch the "Acquire" button to buy a business/property or "Pass" to skip it. The buy transaction will be executed if you have enough cash. Otherwise, you will see "Request a Bank Loan" card. 

The "Total to Pay", 19,243 in this case, will always be lower than your current cash, 19,818 in this case. So, you need to buy only business/property with positive Cash Flow after Payment to win the game, 379 per month in this case.

However, you should only request a downpayment credit as last resort. This is because the Loan Payment, 160 per month in this case, is very expensive. The rate is 4% per month or 160/4000 or 48% per year in this case. The 4% rate is multiple times higher than 0,29% normal monthly mortgage rate previously explained. 

To neutralise the negative effect of this 48% per year loan payment, you will need to either pay it off completely or buy another business/property with at least 48% ROI. The later one will be virtually impossible in this game.  So, you should really pay it off as soon as possible, or never take it in the first place.

Get Money Race 2 in Google Play Store.

Friday, December 25, 2015

Money Race 2: Best Cashflow Game Ever

The Money Race 2 review: It is the best financial simulator app ever, in my opinion. While it is released by independent software company unaffiliated with Robert T. Kiyosaki's Rich Dad, it has all important elements from the original Cashflow board games. Both in single or multiplayer mode

This game has "Escape the rat race via passive income" goal and asset-gathering mechanics similar to the Cashflow for Kids. Each player has a profession chosen randomly to present unique challenge similar to Cashflow 101. It has dynamic stock market similar to Cashflow 202.
The game play is simple. Keep spinning the wheels. Buy assets in purple area. Go on until your passive income reach 100%. You can use the Advanced menu to play in the dynamic stock market or trade properties. 

You escape the rat race when your passive income, cashflow from your assets, exceeds your expenses. At this point, you can finish the game or continue into the fast lane. In the fast lane, the game runs indefinitely or until you reach the goal you set yourself. I found that you can get three stars if you reach 300% passive income before finishing the game.

The single player has five levels. The highest level allows you to buy the biggest business available, while occasionally cost you huge expenses, threatening you into bankruptcy.

I manage to buy five huge businesses after a long while in the fast lane on Level 5. My income is exceeding 1 million dollar per month. Yay!!!

Get Money Race 2 in Google Play Store.

Thursday, December 17, 2015

Beating buy-and-hold

The price of Bitcoin has increased 40% in the last 30 days. This gain is really hard to beat, if not impossible, with any trading strategy. So, I gave up and stop trading until next year.

Here are my top investment results, so far:

  1. Buy and Hold (in Blockchain.info wallet): 40% gain
  2. P2P Lending (BTCjam): 5% gain
  3. Margin Funding (Bitfinex): 1,5% gain
  4. Trading (Bitstamp): still losing

Monday, December 7, 2015

Trading near psychological support and resistance

The Bitcoin price is trading close to $400 for several days now. I found that limit orders tends to gather around round numbers. And at $400 there are 350 bitcoin for sale. This causes resistance below it, such price touching $398 and $399 will bounce back most of the time.

My strategy when trading near resistance is to never buy near it. If I got a buy signal, such as Donchian channel break up, I will not take any sell order. I will instead set up my own buy order at Donchian lower mid hoping that the price will go down.

Sunday, December 6, 2015

Knows your passive income rate in Bitfinex

One of the Bitcoin relatively safest and passive income is from Bitfinex margin funding program. However, the rate fluctuate daily. So, you might want to get into 30 days funding if you think the rate is good, and shorter days if you think the rate is too low.

How do you know if the rate is good or too low? I visit BfxData.com. For example, historically the rate reach above 0,04% per day. So, if you see that on offer and you have funds available, you might want to grab on it for 30 days. Otherwise, grab on whatever you can for 5 days, and repeat the process later.

The blue thread in the middle is the volume weighted average rate (Vwar) at around 0,02% daily (or 7,3% annualy). This is much higher than 1% annual saving interest rate from US Banks. See, the usd.deposits.org as comparison.



Friday, December 4, 2015

Bitstamp Trading inside Donchian channel

In the last post, I explained what I think I should do when Bitcoin price is breaking out of Donchian channel. Now, I will try to elaborate what I think I should do when the price is inside the Donchian channel.

In the past when I hold some Bitcoin during up trend, I successfully employ trailing stop order to cash in profit during reversal. With Donchian channel, I can simulate trailing stop order, by creating sell order only when the price is crossing down the upper mid (75%) of Donchian channel. The mid of Donchian channel is 50%, and the lower mid is 25%. So, if the low Donchian is $300 and high Donchian is $400, the upper mid will be $375.

What to do after the crossing? Assuming that price will move up and down inside Donchian channel without breaking out, then we can start creating Buy Limit order on lower mid or Sell Limit order on upper Mid. So, after selling the coin when the price crossing down the upper mid $375, we set up Buy Limit order at lower mid $325. And when the price cross the limit, the system will automatically execute the buy order. I will then create a Sell Limit order on upper mid $375.

If the assumption was not correct and the price break out of Donchian channel, then we already know what to do in the last post.

Unfortunately, most up trends are not clean. The price hover in the upper Donchian channel, crossing the upper mid several times before breaking up again. This is known to cause loses due to the high transaction fee. Similar situation happens also during the the down trend. Therefore, I devise two counter measures:

  1. After buying during the upper break up, do not sell until the lower break up happens. This is simulating trailing stop order, but less aggressive. This way, I am hopping that the "stop order" will be executed when the price is stabilized (Donchian channel is narrow).
  2. Also do not create sell limit order, until we are sure that the price has crossed into the lower Donchian channel taking into account Bitfinex price. Bitfinex price should be lower when you cross down if it is a genuine crossing, not a temporary one. This because price hovering in upper Donchian might actually still in up trend and ready to break up any time.
Having said that, similar counter measure should be applied as well during the break down.

In summary, do not put limit order, when the price is trending and Donchian channel is getting wider. Start putting limit order when the price stabilize, such as when the price is crossing the mid Donchian taking into account Bitfinex price. Buy limit order at lower mid Donchian and Sell at upper mid.


Thursday, December 3, 2015

Predicting Bitstamp movement with Donchian channel and Bitfinex

I have been losing money trading on Bitstamp because the transaction fee is too high. It is about 0.5
% round trip (0,25% for both order maker and taker). It is about twice from Bitfinex that charge only the 0,1% for order maker and 0,2% for order taker.

However, I notice that Bitstamp is trailing Bitfinex on each major trend. For example, see the blue arrow in the chart below:

  • December 1st, 09:26., Bitstamp last transaction $370.5/BTC break the 11-hours low while Bitfinex price is $1.09 lower already.
  • December 2st, 15:35. Bitstamp last transaction $359.21/BTC break the 11-hours high while Bitfinex price is $0.24 higher already.
There are many break up in between and around them. But, all of them on the same direction and Bitfinex is already on the correct side of the trend. So, I wonder if I buy 1 BTC when the price break up and sell when the price break down. I will make about $9.46 profit after fee about 2,5% per capital.

If I can make 3 round trip each week, then I can make 7,5% profit each week, equivalent to 130% APR. So, I will start today with testing capital of 0,02 BTC or $7,2. This is because Bitstamp allows only minium $5 per order.

Why trade with such a low amount? I want to know if this theory works. I was on November 30th, 23:42 (the red arrow above) there is a blip high break out that does not start a trend. I will lose money, if I buy at that point and sell it several hours later with lower price.

On top of that, we still miss two important issues. First, after buying, when is the right time to sell. Some trader use "stop order" limit. So, they will hold the bitcoins during the expanding Donchian channel and when the price start falling, they sell. Second, is how to trade inside Donchian channel when the Donchian channel is narrow. This will be discussed in the next post.

In summary, buy now when you see the Bitstamp price breaking up Donchian and Bitfinex price is currently higher than Bitstamp. Sell the bitcoins later when you see the Bitstampe price is breaking low and Bitfinex price is currently lower. You might have several loses, but when your wins might offset the loses.

I am back

Hi, there.
I am back after years of inactivity in online investing world.

Why I left last time? Despite of amassing hundreds of dollar from affiliates and AdSense, I feel that curating and bookkeeping of active investment is takes too much time. So, currently I am outsourcing the curating and bookkeeping work to BTCjam. I have just started with 30 micro-investments, got some payments and no defaults yet. But, I know that losers are not those whose lost one or two ventures. Losers are those who does not take action because of fear of losing.

Having said that, I diversify with auto renew Margin Funding on Bitfinex and some bot trading on Bitstamp. I am still learning to trade on Bitstamp. My experience on station trading in Eve Online game bolster my confidence. Unfortunately, this is unwarranted, because while I win some, a lose a lot more in Bitstamp. I am considering to do simulated paper trading instead.