Rebalancing Bitcoin Investment June 2016

BTC is going up, pushing all of my portofolio up. Stock market is still weak, keeping ING Fund as the least performing as usual.

Take aways:

1. Overtime, the EUR-based investments (Mintos, Twino and ING Fund) is suprisingly close to each other at around 0,9% yield per month.
2. Overtime, all BTC-based investments (BTCjam, LoanBase, Bitbond, BTCPop) outperform the average.

Mintos promotion:

1. Get 1% credit for the first 3 months for new registratio using this link: mintos.com
2. This site will get small credit as well, when you register using that link.
3. The reward will be calculated based on the average daily invested balance over a 3-month period and paid in three installments — 30, 60, and 90 days after the registration date.

Rebalancing Bitcoin Investment May 2016

USD is going flat against Euro. This allow some Mixed-currency investment to have a modest gain. Unfortunately, BTC investements are slightly losing value againts EUR.

Take aways:

1. EUR-only loans on Mintos and Twino is starting to give 1% gain. This is matched by mixed-currency loan on Bitbond. 
2. Stock Market gain is weak for the last three month. So, My ING Fund investment is slightly losing value. I have been investing on it for a long time. It is just now that I am tracking its value.
3. BTCjam is consistently giving above average gain for the last 6 months.
4. Loanbase loans losing more value than BTCPop. This is because of 10%+ default rate on Loanbase, in addition to BTC losing value againts EUR.

April 2016 has the highest late and default rate on Loanbase.

Rebalancing Bitcoin Investment April 2016

USD declines further against EUR. However, this time BTC break free and actualy gains a bit. So, from Euro perspective, it seems Bitcoin is less volatile than US Dollar this time.

Our last month strategy is starting to pay. Mintos EUR-only investment is giving stable early returns.

Take aways:

1. I might abandon trading entirely, due to underperforming Trading Margin Funding on Bitfinex and Trading Bot on Bitstamp.
2. This month, any trading strategy just cannot compete on just holding on Bitcoin at BTCPop Instant Account.
3. If you live in Eurozone, it is proven to be profitable to invest on P2P Lending platform, such as Mintos. 
4. My investment in its competitor, Twino is not yet profitable because I have just started with it.
5. Bitbond is not performing well, because of cash drag. Some of the funds are trapped "in funding" loan and then returned because of the loan failed to get fully funded.

My fair price calculation, when selling notes on BTCjam:

1. I am manually selling some late notes on BTCjam. People are buying some of that notes apparently.
2. true-invested = invested - received
3. fair-price = average(remaining + true-invested)

For example:

• invested = 0,02
• recieved = 0,01
• remaining = 0,02
• true-invested = 0,01 = 0,02 - 0,01
• fair-price = 0,015 = average(0,02 + 0,01)

Rebalancing Bitcoin Investment March 2016

US Dollar declines against EUR and dragging BTC along this month. So, diversification between USD and BTC do not make sense anymore. I have to diversify into EUR as well, as soon as possible.

Take aways:

1. BTCJam is still gaining profit. This is because it calculates account values based on future receivables as well. However, the profit is halved this month and it is not enough to offset loses from other investments.
2. Other investments suffer from low USD, low BTC or both. This is dragging down the entire portfolio into red.
3. The BTCPop Pool is the biggest loser. I will move most of the funds there to BTCjam. I am keeping funds on Loanbase, the second biggest loser. This is because, I am still putting it on trial since last month.
4. Virtually all loans in my portfolio are currently not in EUR and unsecured. So, I am starting to invest in Mintos. Most of its loan are in EUR and secured (with property or a car)

 Choosing Euro P2P Lending:

1. I am not investing into Bondora, right now, because its loans are unsecured like the rest of my portfolio. So, no diversification there.
2. I am not investing into Twino, right now. Most of its loans are payday loans. My decision stays, even though most of its loans are secured with buy back guarantee,
3. So, Mintos is obvious choice right now. I just want to diversify on Euro business loans, car credit and mortgage right now.

Rebalancing Bitcoin Investments February 2016

Bitcoin price is up, however US Dollar is going down against Euro. As result, this month is a reverse of last month. Bitcoin heavy investment, such as Loanbase and BTCPop, has positive cashflow, while USD-heavy, such as Bitfinex has negative cashflow.

Take aways:

1. BTCjam has balanced loans on Bitcoin and USD. So, it is not affected too much by fluctuation.
2. Loanbase loans are almost exclusively in Bitcoin, similar to BTCPop. So, they benefit the most from increasing Bitcoin price.
3. I manage to get positive cashflow on three P2P lending platforms. Bitbond could be the fourth patform in coming weeks.
4. Bitfinex loan has been interrupted several times this month. This is causing my money sit idle doing nothing for several days. I might divest from Bitfinex because of this.
5. My trading bot has made several good trade this month. But, the yield is low and cannot overcome transaction fee and declining USD exchange rate.

I have confirmed with Loanbase Support that there is no automatic way to calculate Loanbase Account Value. So I have to calculate it myself:

• BTC Account Value =  Total + Autoinvest Balance + Invested - Repaid
• USD Account Value = Invested - Repaid
• BRL Account Value = Invested - Repaid
• To get the Loanbase Account Value, convert all of them into the same currency, such as Euro, then add them up.

Rebalancing Bitcoin Investments January 2016

January is a rough month. Bitcon price drops 10%. Fortunately, some of my investments are either tied to fiat or have high yield to counter it.

My rebalancing decisions:

1. I am starting "three piggy banks" this year. My goal is 10% of my net salary should go to high yield investment, 10% for rainy day, 10% for social/donation. Initially, I will inject 50€ worth of Bitcoin every months and rebalance the portfolio for maximum yield.
2. I empty my 0,3 BTC idle wallet, because the Bitcoin price is 10% down causing negative 10% yield. About 100€ rebalanced to "Loanbase AutoInvest". It is still under 1% Yield/month. Maybe because loanbase is slow on funding loans and most loans are on BTC.
3. My self-made trading bot is still losing money. I have rebalance it last month into the minimum. So, I don't have to do it again. It is getting better though.
4. I rebalance 50€ "BTCpop 5% APR Saving Account" into "BTCpop A-rated Pool Account". It was losing money due to Bitcoin price down. I am hoping, moving into higher yield account should offset the price fluctuation.
5. My Bitfinex Margin Funding is going steady at 0,004% daily. So, I am not going to touch it.
6. My 50€ capital injection goes to BTCjam Autoinvest. There are two reason it has good yield when Bitcoin price is down: First, a lot of the loans are tied to fiat currency. Second, no default loans yet, because I am a new member.

Yield calculation:

1. The capital-growth is account-value-this-month minus last-month minus capital-injection.
2. The yield of Trading, Pool and Margin Funding is simply the capital-growth divided by account-value-last-month. This is simple-yield.
3. The yield of Loan Funding is simple-yield divided by 12. This is because most loans have 12 months duration.

My dream:

• This month the total yield is 3,5% or 42% APR. This APR is bigger than in the typical Business/Property ROI in Money Race 2 game.
• In Money Race 2 game, I can reach financial freedom in 50 turn or 1 year equivalence (1 turn=1 week). This is due to 1000+ $/€ capital injection each month. In real life, I hope I could reach financial freedom in 10 years or less with less than 100€ monthly capital injection.

Money Race 2: Multiplayer Cheat-sheet

Here is my Money Race 2 Cheat-sheet to win multiplayer game:

• Pay off Credit Card (120% APR), Bank Loan (60+%), Car Credit (36+%) ASAP! 
• Buy rare 36+% ROI Business/Property now and 12+% ROI if you have cash 
• Ignore <12% ROI Busines/Property, mortgage and stock dividend for later
• Sell property that lost value.

Once you win your first single player race, you might want to try the multiplayer competition. There are several potential advantages when you do this:

1. Low difficulty level gives you profession with less monthly income and less debt. Less debt makes it easier to win. For example when you win a Lottery, the price is fixed to 150000 regardless of how little your debt is. This is unlikely, by if you got fired, you have less to lose and need only small bank loan to survive into the next payday. 
2. If you are out of spin, other player might gives you some FREE spins to keep you playing. So, you could basically play this game for FREE if you want to. 

Timing is very important in multiplayer game. Each player has three hours to complete five spins. And your total income and expenses is calculated only on Pay Day that happens after every fourth spin. So, try to pay off Credit Card, Bank Loan and Car Credit before the fourth spin.

Bankruptcy only happens on Pay Day. So each time, you need to know how many spins away you are from the pay day.  You can get this information by scrolling down the Stats page from the Advanced menu. In this case, you are on you 20th Turn. So, you have four spins into the next Pay Day.

You can think of one spin as one week. So, one Pay Day happens every four weeks or a month. My strategy is to keep buying as much as 12+% ROI property/business offers during my first three weeks. Then I pause, think and prepare for the important Pay Day:

1. My income is positive (I am not fired from my job and has not many expensive debt). If this is the case, I will try pay of Credit Card, Bank Loan and Car Credit if any. Otherwise I will try to buy 12+% ROI properties from the market if any.
2. If my income is negative, then I will try to sell some or all of my properties on the market. I also sell property if it lost its value. Worst case, I will try to get just enough loan from my bank to survive the next Pay day.

Note, I don't use the stock market. This is because it takes too much time to calculate ROI, buying and selling stock. The ROI of stock dividends is under 12% or worst most of the time, except in Level 1. There, the stock ROI can be as high as 21%. They are useful close to the end of a race, when you have so much money but no property to buy.